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Ryan Driscoll

The Economy and Markets March On

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Nov 11, 2019

Topic: Market Commentary

The overhang of a U.S.-China trade war has weighed on the risk markets all year. Despite this, equity market returns have been strong in 2019 and the recent news of a “Phase 1” trade deal being negotiated has propelled the S&P 500 to its best returns since 2013. The movement towards a trade deal may also be a sign that the world’s second largest economy, China, may be struggling to maintain...

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Chart of the Month | Strange Happenings in the Repo Market

Posted by Ivo C. Nenin, Ryan Driscoll on Oct 2, 2019

Topic: Market Commentary

An obscure but very large part of the financial markets caused a stir in late September. Lending rates spiked in the repurchase (repo) markets...

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Recession – Maybe This Time is Different

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Aug 1, 2019

Topic: Industry Knowledge | Investment Strategy | Market Commentary

The July Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting signaled the end of central bank rate normalization with the first rate cut in more than a decade . . .

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Chart of the Month | Economic Expansions Getting Longer

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Aug 1, 2019

Topic: Market Commentary

Following the July FOMC meeting and with investors digesting the first rate cut since 2008 it is important to recognize that the domestic economy is now...

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Are Investors Counting Their Eggs Before They Hatch?

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Feb 11, 2019

Topic: Market Commentary

Beginning in January and now continuing into February, stock markets have rallied on positive news in areas of concern – mostly on the policy front. We remain cautious as in our view, policy risk tends to be the most difficult to price, but also the most likely to surprise...

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Bah Humbug…No Presents from the Fed This Year

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Dec 19, 2018

Topic: Market Commentary

But at least it’s not the Grinch Who Stole Christmas...Recent volatility in the financial markets and a bit of softer inflation data had investors hoping for a holiday season treat from the FOMC in December. An immediate pause in interest rates was very unlikely, but some guidance towards a slower pace in...

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Three Reasons Investors Should be Optimistic

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Nov 9, 2018

Topic: Market Commentary

The markets are certainly making investors uncomfortable lately. However, market corrections, especially late in the cycle should be expected and can be healthy. We have experienced five sell-offs (and recoveries!) of similar magnitude in the last five years. Unfortunately, 2018 brought the markets back to a more normal level of volatility after investors were lulled into a sense of riskless comfort in 2017. Despite the recent market instability, we still see three reasons to be optimistic...

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The U.S. Economy: Still Looking Strong

Posted by Ryan Driscoll on Aug 16, 2018

Topic: Market Commentary

Mid-year has come and gone and until recently the markets were behaving like it’s 2017 all over again. Through July, the S&P 500 Index has had four straight months of gains. U.S. Treasury yields are relatively contained and the 10-year bond seems to have found resistance at the 3 percent level. Lastly, it seemed as though the spike in volatility that we saw early in the year had subsided

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Wage Inflation: Is it Different This Time?

Posted by Ryan Driscoll, Kristofer Kwait on Jul 13, 2018

Topic: Market Commentary

The Federal Reserve Governors have been waiting patiently for a meaningful jump in inflation to validate the removal of historically low interest rates that laid the foundation for the economic recovery since the financial crisis. And . . . while The Fed continues to wait . . .

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Strong Signals Support the Fed’s Path Forward

Posted by Ryan Driscoll, Kristofer Kwait on Jun 15, 2018

Topic: Industry Knowledge | Market Commentary

Ultimately, the decision to increase rates was unanimous as the vote was 8-0. Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates for the second time this year and upgraded their forecast to four total increases in 2018, as unemployment fell and inflation exceeded their targets faster than previously projected.

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