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Chart of the Month |
Economic Expansions Getting Longer

August 1, 2019  | by Ryan Driscoll

Market Commentary

Following the July FOMC meeting and with investors digesting the first rate cut since 2008 it is important to recognize that the domestic economy is now experiencing the longest period of economic expansion since 1850. In the modern era (1945-2009) the average period of economic growth was 58.4 months. As of July 2019, the current expansion now stands at 121 months. Interestingly, while the periods of growth have gotten longer…periods of contraction have gotten shorter. For the same time period discussed previously the average contraction was just 11.1 months – much shorter than previous economic cycles. We can’t say for sure what is driving this phenomenon, although the Fed is hoping that it’s a sign they are improving at their attempts to stay ahead the inevitable shifts in the economy. See the National Bureau of Economic Research for more information.

Chart of the Month - Longest Economic Expansion on Record

Authors

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Ryan Driscoll is a member of the Commonfund Asset Management Investment team and is primarily responsible for investment monitoring, rebalancing and reporting for investment portfolios with a focus on operating assets. Prior to joining Commonfund, Ryan worked at Sailfish Capital Partners, a multi-strategy fixed income fund, where he served on the Emerging Markets team. Prior to that, he was on the fixed income team at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. and was an equity/fixed income trader at Loring, Wolcott and Coolidge, in Boston. Ryan received his B.S. in Finance and M.S. in Global Financial Analysis (with Distinction) from Bentley University. He is a CFA Charterholder and is a member of the Boston Securities Analyst Society and CFA Institute.
Ryan Driscoll
Director, CFA
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Disclaimer

Information, opinions, or commentary concerning the financial markets, economic conditions, or other topical subject matter are prepared, written, or created prior to printing and do not reflect current, up-to-date, market or economic conditions. Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to update such information, opinions, or commentary. To the extent views presented forecast market activity, they may be based on many factors in addition to those explicitly stated in this material. Forecasts of experts inevitably differ. Views attributed to third parties are presented to demonstrate the existence of points of view, not as a basis for recommendations or as investment advice. Managers who may or may not subscribe to the views expressed in this material make investment decisions for funds maintained by Commonfund or its affiliates. The views presented in this material may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Commonfund fund, or of any Commonfund manager. Market and investment views of third parties presented in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of Commonfund and Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to present its views on the subjects covered in statements by third parties. Statements concerning Commonfund’s views of possible future outcomes in any investment asset class or market, or of possible future economic developments, are not intended, and should not be construed, as forecasts or predictions of the future investment performance of any Commonfund fund. Such statements are also not intended as recommendations by any Commonfund entity or employee to the recipient of the presentation. It is Commonfund’s policy that investment recommendations to its clients must be based on the investment objectives and risk tolerances of each individual client. All market outlook and similar statements are based upon information reasonably available as of the date of this presentation (unless an earlier date is stated with regard to particular information), and reasonably believed to be accurate by Commonfund. Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to provide the recipient of this presentation with updated or corrected information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For more information please refer to Important Disclosures.