The Housing Market Paradox
The U.S. housing market stands at a critical juncture as sectors adjust to the anticipated Trump administration. While various industries are pricing in different expectations, housing faces unique...
U.S. Trade Deficit Reaches Record High Amid Global Trade Shifts
As of September 2024, the U.S. trade deficit stands at $84.4 billion, marking the highest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. During that period in the conflict, the deficit...
The Pivot Heard Around the World
A U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) pivot is felt throughout global markets, affecting economies worldwide.
Stay the Course: Long-Term Investing Beyond Election Volatility
Presidential elections often beget new theories about how candidates might influence financial markets. This year is especially pivotal, with nearly half of the global population participating in...
How Long Can the Yen Carry Trade Carry On?
Since Japan's economic crash in the 1990s, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained extremely low interest rates to combat deflation. For nearly a decade, Japan's benchmark rate has been negative,...
The Fed and Markets Expectations Start to Align
It took six months, but the FOMC and the short-term rates markets are finally in alignment with respect to the level of the Fed Funds rate as we approach the second half of 2024. Since the beginning...
What's Driving Surprisingly Low Volatility in Energy Markets?
In the current geopolitical environment, we would have historically expected much more volatility in the energy complex. Oddly, that has not been the case over the last 6 months. In fact, crude oil...
China Continues to Drag Emerging Markets into 2024
2023 marked the third year of drawdowns for the Chinese equity markets, reflecting a country still trying to emerge from the pandemic period. A combination of factors continued to hamper the once...
Lagarde Offers Little Comfort Amidst All Time High ECB Rates
Last Thursday marked the tenth hike of the European Central Bank (“ECB”) deposit rate.
Markets Signal Higher for Longer Interest Rates
Market sentiment on bonds continues to trend lower, leaving the overall open interest in short-dated U.S. Treasury futures net short at an unprecedented level. There is the potential that these short...
The Treasury Basis Trade: Opportunity in Uncertainty