Posts by Ivo C Nenin

Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Beware of High Yield Bonds

Income-hungry investors continued to push yields on speculative grade bonds to new lows despite the challenging business conditions this year. The yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate High Yield...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Are Value Stocks Finally Going to Make a Run?

The month of November saw a sharp rotation into value equities at the expense of technology and communication services companies, causing investors to wonder whether the long-run dominance of growth...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Recession Impacts on Employment and Wages

It may come as a surprise to many that average disposable personal incomes have increased by 6.6 percent from February prior to the pandemic through August. This is down from a high of 9.8 percent in...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Low Rates Make Record Government Debt Manageable – For Now

Few people would have predicted that U.S. equity markets would be higher today than at the start of 2020 if told that a virus would infect over 7.0 million people in the U.S., cause over 200,000...
Investment Strategy | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Inflation Expectations Surge, Driving Real Interest Rates Down

Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole during the last week of August confirmed the Fed’s dovish policy stance, giving investors ample support in terms of low rates and a flexible inflation...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Markets are Running Ahead of Economic Reality

When investors open their second quarter investment reports, many will be shocked by the magnitude of stock market gains in the second quarter. Their surprise could be voiced by a rhetorical question...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Measuring Social Distancing with Mobility Trends

We continue to monitor the level of social distancing as an indicator for business activity and improvement in consumer sentiment. Personal spending experienced the largest month-over-month drop on...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | The Fed Rides to the Rescue

The Federal Reserve is determined to support the economy and the normal functioning of capital markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 29th, the total asset size of the Fed’s balance sheet...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | The Dangers of Timing a Bear Market

It has been well documented that trying to avoid market downturns by selling out of stocks and moving to cash can be damaging to long-term portfolio values. And while there are strong behavioral...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | A Price War Erupts in the Oil Market

Oil prices declined over 21 percent on March 9, 2020, the largest single-day decline since January 1991 during the Gulf War[1]. There was optimism prior to the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Central Banks Increasingly Accommodative

World markets appeared to be returning to their upward trend in the beginning of February after a volatile start of the year. While concerns about global growth caused by the coronavirus outbreak are...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Election Year Market Trends

As we enter the 12th year of economic expansion since the Great Financial Crisis, investors continue to wonder whether 2020 will be the year when equity markets finally experience a correction....
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Fed Funds Rate Reduction Drives Markets to New Highs

U.S. equities reached an all-time high at the end of October as downside fears abated and risk-on sentiment improved. Among the positives, successful completion of “phase one” of the U.S. – China...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Strange Happenings in the Repo Market

An obscure but very large part of the financial markets caused a stir in late September. Lending rates spiked in the repurchase (repo) markets as institutions sought short-term liquidity. The rate...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Yield Curve Inversion - Signal or False Positive?

Lately, there has been quite a bit of hand-wringing by the financial media about the yield curve inversion. It seems that many prognosticators believe that an inversion is a clear market signal that...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Defensive Stocks at a Premium

The valuation premium (forward price/earnings) of defensive stocks versus cyclicals has climbed steadily over the last seven months. Limited risk appetite, slowing growth, low interest rates and...
Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | Conflicting Signals in Stock and Bond Markets

The Bond markets’ expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts changed drastically last Friday on the news of President Trump’s intention to impose tariffs on Mexico, in an attempt to...
Investment Strategy | Articles

Inflation is Expected to Rise. How Can Investors Protect Portfolios?

In March, capital markets entered their tenth year of post-crisis recovery. For diversified portfolios, these have been some of the most profitable times, characterized by strong returns, positive...