Nearly half of institutional investors surveyed expect the S&P 500 Index to have lower returns in 2026, compared to the 10-year average annualized return.
Private equity and public equities cited as most attractive asset classes.
NORWALK, CT, March 12, 2026 — Commonfund, a prominent investment manager for institutional investors, today announced the results of its annual survey featuring market sentiment from more than 200 sophisticated institutional investors recently polled at its annual Forum event, which convened over 300 investors representing over $238 billion in assets.
The results reflect top-of-mind themes and concerns for investors in 2026, including tempered expectations for U.S. equity market returns, heightened concern around geopolitical events and continued confidence in private equity and public equities as the top performing asset classes.
Moderate Return Expectations Amid Heightened Geopolitical Risk
When asked about expectations for U.S. stock market returns in 2026 compared to the 10-year average annualized return of 13 percent (as of February 2026) for the S&P 500 Index, nearly half (49 %) of investors expect lower returns, while 35 percent anticipate returns will be about the same. Just 14 percent expect higher returns, and two percent foresee negative returns.
At the same time, sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy remains measured but constructive, with the largest share (42%) describing themselves as “neutral” and more than a third expressing a “bullish” view (35%), up from 22 percent in last year’s survey. 17 percent of respondents described themselves as “bearish,” down from 22 percent last year.
Regarding investor concerns, the majority cited geopolitical events (52%) as the top issue facing the economy and markets in 2026. Rising inflation (17%) and the potential for recession (10%) followed, underscoring ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
“While today’s environment is undeniably complex, the results reinforce that institutional investors are approaching 2026 with discipline, realism and a long-term perspective,” remarked Mark Anson, CEO and CIO of Commonfund. “At Commonfund, we understand that uncertainty is part of the landscape and are positioning portfolios thoughtfully to navigate this complexity while staying focused on strategic objectives.”
When assessing their own organizations’ ability to meet long-term targets, the majority of investors remain constructive. Nearly 59 percent said they are “modestly bullish” about achieving target returns over the next 10 years, and 17 percent said they are “very bullish.” Only 17 percent reported they were starting to feel nervous about their ability to meet those goals, and one percent reported feeling very nervous.
“We are cognizant of the current geopolitical circumstances that might allow for a more cautious near-term outlook. However, long-term investors remain largely confident in their ability to achieve target returns, supported by diversified portfolios, allocations to alternative asset classes, and the identification of non-correlated alpha streams" Anson added. “We expect private equity and public equities to continue playing a meaningful role in helping institutions pursue their long-term objectives in the years ahead.”
Additional Findings Include:
- Across asset classes, investors most frequently selected private equity (49%) and public equities (40%) as those expected to deliver the best absolute/total returns over the next 12 months, followed by venture capital (34%) and real assets (27%). Private credit (16%), fixed income (14%) and cryptocurrencies / digital assets (7%) followed.
- Expectations for private markets over the next 12–18 months are largely stable, with 34 percent of investors expecting returns to be about the same as the previous 12–18 months, 31 percent expecting stronger returns and 30 percent expecting weaker returns.
Convening over 300 investors from the United States, Canada, Austria, Japan and the Caribbean, this year’s Commonfund Forum centered on the theme of “Navigate Now.” The event’s programming focused on how to navigate unpredictability in investment portfolios, both in the U.S. and globally, the implications of ongoing geopolitical conflicts on institutional investors, the growth of artificial intelligence and its impact on the economy and investment landscape, and the increased opportunity in private markets portfolios. The three-day event included keynotes, panels and breakout sessions from over 40 speakers, and featured the Jen Easterly, Former Director of the U.S. Cyber Defense Agency (CISA); Kenneth Rogoff, Former Chief Economist at the IMF and Professor at Harvard University; Admiral James Stavridis, 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO; Steve Liesman, Senior Economist at CNBC; Jen Kha, Operating Partner at Andreessen Horowitz; world-renowned portrait photographer, Platon; Vilas Dhar, President & Trustee of the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation; Jens Foehrenbach, President and CIO of Graham Capital Management; Kris Fredrickson, Founder of Verified Capital; Eric M. Kelly, President of the Quantum Foundation; Rev Dr. Shannon Polk, President and CEO of the Ann Arbor Area Community Foundation, among many others.
Survey Methodology: Commonfund’s Annual Market Sentiment Survey collected answers from 204 respondents representing endowments, foundations, pension funds, operating charities, healthcare organizations, family offices and RIAs. The investors were surveyed in-person at the 27th annual Commonfund Forum, which was held in Hollywood, Florida from February 25 – 28, 2026.
About Commonfund
Commonfund is a leading asset management firm that empowers educational institutions, foundations, pension funds, family offices, RIAs, and other sophisticated investors to achieve their most important goals. Through our Outsourced CIO business, we provide nonprofits access to world-class investment management solutions. Our CF Private Equity business provides access to private equity investments for both nonprofit and for-profit organizations seeking to diversify their portfolios with private investments. Our Commonfund Institute is among the nation’s most trusted sources for relevant, useful, and proprietary data, analytics, and best practices in financial management. All our businesses are united by a relentless commitment to investment performance matched by an equally relentless commitment to the values of trust, transparency, and ethical behavior that have inspired us since our founding more than fifty years ago. www.commonfund.org
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