Fiscal Policy Impacts on the Economy: Maybe too early to tell….

May 30, 2025 |
2 minute read
|
Fiscal Policy Impacts on the Economy: Maybe too early to tell….
3:41

We are now more than 100 days into the Trump administration and six weeks past the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. In that time the S&P 500 has reached it’s all time high, sold off more than 20 percent and rallied back more than 20 percent. The bond market is also no stranger to volatility. If we use the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as a benchmark, it has touched 4.80 percent, 3.80 percent and now sits around 4.50 percent. Large swings in the yield on a risk-free asset are unsettling and contributed to the 90 days pause in the initial tariffs levied on U.S. trading partners. However, there has been one source of stability where it is least expected – economic data. Caution, this may be fleeting.

It would be natural to assume that the complete reassessment of U.S. global trade relationships would have a lasting economic impact. The consumer certainly thinks so. Sentiment data is materially softer post “Liberation Day”. The weaker-than-expected May report from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was driven by a further increase in inflation expectations and suggests households remain wary about the tariff outlook. That was the fifth straight monthly fall. Of note, tariffs were mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers who were surveyed. Weakening income growth was also picked up in the current assessment of personal finances. Ultimately, the principal reason for the ongoing weakness in sentiment was inflation expectations, which, despite the pause in most reciprocal tariffs, moved higher.

However, while consumers are concerned about higher prices and their personal financial situation, many of these concerns have yet to be reflected in the “hard” economic data. In fact, recent gauges of inflation, employment, and domestic growth have proved resilient at the early stages of this economic recalibration. To recap:

  • Inflation: The CPI report for April showed prices rose by less than forecast, coming in at 2.3 percent. Goods categories impacted by tariffs, new cars and apparel, did not see the price increases that were expected. Grocery prices saw the biggest decline since 2020.
  • Employment: Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 in April after the prior two months’ advances were revised lower. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent. The report suggests the labor market continues to cool gradually, a sign that businesses facing heightened uncertainty around tariffs and turmoil in financial markets have not yet significantly altered their hiring plans.
  • Gross Domestic Product: The U.S. economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter, due to a large pre-tariff import surge and more moderate consumer spending. Despite the contraction, consumer spending advanced at a 1.2 percent pace, and the gauge of underlying demand in the economy was solid, helped by the fastest growth in business equipment purchases since 2020.

Looking forward, it is hard to envision this stability persisting. It is likely that the relative calm in the economic data is simply just that the lagged impacts of the policy changes have yet to materialize. However, investors may also be able to take comfort in assuming that the shift in trade policy won’t have the catastrophic impacts initially assumed, and that when paired with the pending tax bill and ongoing deregulation, there may be offsetting factors that smooth the transition to a more balanced, domestically focused, economy. Nonetheless, patience is warranted.

CHT-Policy-Impacts

 

Ryan Driscoll

Author

Ryan Driscoll

Managing Director

Disclaimer

Certain information contained herein has been obtained from or is based on third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified. Such information is as of the date indicated, if indicated, may not be complete, is subject to change and has not necessarily been updated. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be given by The Common Fund for Nonprofit Organizations, any of its affiliates or any of its or their affiliates, trustees, directors, officers, employees or advisers (collectively referred to herein as “Commonfund”) or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in any third-party materials. Accordingly, Commonfund shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement in, or omission from, such third-party materials, and any such liability is expressly disclaimed.

All rights to the trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property listed herein belong to their respective owners and the use of such logos hereof does not imply an affiliation with, or endorsement by, the owners of such trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property.

To the extent views presented forecast market activity, they may be based on many factors in addition to those explicitly stated herein. Forecasts of experts inevitably differ. Views attributed to third-parties are presented to demonstrate the existence of points of view, not as a basis for recommendations or as investment advice. Market and investment views of third-parties presented herein do not necessarily reflect the views of Commonfund, any manager retained by Commonfund to manage any investments for Commonfund (each, a “Manager”) or any fund managed by any Commonfund entity (each, a “Fund”). Accordingly, the views presented herein may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of Commonfund, any Manager or any Fund.

Statements concerning Commonfund’s views of possible future outcomes in any investment asset class or market, or of possible future economic developments, are not intended, and should not be construed, as forecasts or predictions of the future investment performance of any Fund. Such statements are also not intended as recommendations by any Commonfund entity or any Commonfund employee to the recipient of the presentation. It is Commonfund’s policy that investment recommendations to its clients must be based on the investment objectives and risk tolerances of each individual client. All market outlook and similar statements are based upon information reasonably available as of the date of this presentation (unless an earlier date is stated with regard to particular information), and reasonably believed to be accurate by Commonfund. Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to provide the recipient of this presentation with updated or corrected information or statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For more information please refer to Important Disclosures.

Stay connected with the Insights Blog

Popular Blog Posts


Market Commentary | Insights Blog

Chart of the Month | U.S. Budget Deficit Hits Record Highs

In his first 100 days as President of the United States, Joe Biden has introduced three domestic funding proposals, totaling close to $6.0 Trillion, reflecting a desire to enhance the role of the...
Governance And Policy | Insights Blog

A Closer Look at Historically Black Colleges and Universities

Earlier this year, in partnership with the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO), Commonfund released the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments (NCSE). The...
Investment Strategy | Insights Blog

Key Factors in Asset Allocation Decisions for Endowments

There are several broad subjects that an effective investment policy statement (IPS) should include in its contents and address clearly and specifically as they relate to an endowed institution. This...

Disclaimer

Certain information contained herein has been obtained from or is based on third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified. Such information is as of the date indicated, if indicated, may not be complete, is subject to change and has not necessarily been updated. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be given by The Common Fund for Nonprofit Organizations, any of its affiliates or any of its or their affiliates, trustees, directors, officers, employees or advisers (collectively referred to herein as “Commonfund”) or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in any third-party materials. Accordingly, Commonfund shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement in, or omission from, such third-party materials, and any such liability is expressly disclaimed.

All rights to the trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property listed herein belong to their respective owners and the use of such logos hereof does not imply an affiliation with, or endorsement by, the owners of such trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property.

To the extent views presented forecast market activity, they may be based on many factors in addition to those explicitly stated herein. Forecasts of experts inevitably differ. Views attributed to third-parties are presented to demonstrate the existence of points of view, not as a basis for recommendations or as investment advice. Market and investment views of third-parties presented herein do not necessarily reflect the views of Commonfund, any manager retained by Commonfund to manage any investments for Commonfund (each, a “Manager”) or any fund managed by any Commonfund entity (each, a “Fund”). Accordingly, the views presented herein may not be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of Commonfund, any Manager or any Fund.

Statements concerning Commonfund’s views of possible future outcomes in any investment asset class or market, or of possible future economic developments, are not intended, and should not be construed, as forecasts or predictions of the future investment performance of any Fund. Such statements are also not intended as recommendations by any Commonfund entity or any Commonfund employee to the recipient of the presentation. It is Commonfund’s policy that investment recommendations to its clients must be based on the investment objectives and risk tolerances of each individual client. All market outlook and similar statements are based upon information reasonably available as of the date of this presentation (unless an earlier date is stated with regard to particular information), and reasonably believed to be accurate by Commonfund. Commonfund disclaims any responsibility to provide the recipient of this presentation with updated or corrected information or statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For more information please refer to Important Disclosures.