2024 is expected to be a record year for secondaries, but the market volume should be even larger. The secondary market remains undercapitalized and under-resourced. Investors are unable to transact...
The past 18 months have witnessed the dominance of a small group of tech stocks in the U.S. equity market. Collectively dubbed the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7)1, these stocks as a basket have...
Since Japan's economic crash in the 1990s, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained extremely low interest rates to combat deflation. For nearly a decade, Japan's benchmark rate has been negative,...
Episode 4 In this episode we cover the macro perspective and how we analyze the Fed and interest rate risks. We also talk through the upcoming U.S. election and policy approaches.
Over the last 12 months, the global stock markets demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth despite several challenges, including persistently high interest rates, geopolitical instability, and...
It took six months, but the FOMC and the short-term rates markets are finally in alignment with respect to the level of the Fed Funds rate as we approach the second half of 2024. Since the beginning...
Episode 3 In this episode we cover the employment market, our views on interest rates and artificial intelligence (AI). Lastly, our view on the most important thing investors should be looking for in...
Better valuations. Innovation hotspots. Opportunities to add value. Geopolitical tensions. Debt burdens. Trade imbalances. Equity investing outside the U.S. holds its attractions—and risks. A report...
In the current geopolitical environment, we would have historically expected much more volatility in the energy complex. Oddly, that has not been the case over the last 6 months. In fact, crude oil...
2 + 2 = ? In the world of economics—a lot of variables may mess with the answer. Two sessions early in the agenda at Commonfund Forum 2024 brought into focus the range of scenarios in play for...
Global macroeconomic trends signal an increased level of investment in the climate and energy transition sectors, despite broader market volatility over the past few years, as investors aim to seize...
2023 was the lowest year in 10 years for U.S. private equity distributions.1 Without the cash from exits, private equity investors are struggling to commit to new private equity funds. Lessons...
Episode 2 In this episode we cover our macro-economic outlook, portfolio diversification and the role of hedge funds. Lastly, we give our perspective on the markets going forward.
2023 WRAP-UP 2023 marked a second straight year of lower deal volumes for private equity following the record-breaking activity of 2021. U.S. private equity aggregate deal value declined to $645.3...
2023 marked the third year of drawdowns for the Chinese equity markets, reflecting a country still trying to emerge from the pandemic period. A combination of factors continued to hamper the once...
As we enter our 36th year, we write to share with you our year-end letter and observations of what may be ahead in 2024 in the private equity investment environment.
The long and winding road This was a year to catch our breath. After the S&P 500 Index fell 18.1 percent in 2022, and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index fell 13.0 percent, we all needed a break....
As we inch closer to 2024, domestic markets have been largely driven by shifts in sentiment surrounding the macroeconomic environment, leading many to question the relationship between “bad news” and...
As the cost of debt has risen and its availability has fallen, deal-making within private equity (“PE”) has slowed. PE firms that have historically been overly reliant on leverage in financing...
For more than 50 years, Commonfund has been working with boards and investment committees to design and implement investment structures that support and maintain intergenerational equity - the...
Episode 1 In this episode we cover our macro-economic outlook, delve into public and private equities, the impact of higher inflation and interest rates on fixed income and credit strategies, as well...
In order to underwrite new commitments in an uncertain market environment, it is critical to normalize valuation methodologies and deeply analyze underlying portfolio companies.
After a relatively tame summer, significant cross-asset volatility has returned with both the MOVE and VIX indices increasing by 37 and 48 percent respectively, after approaching the lows for 2023 in...
On September 27th, Commonfund OCIO hosted an event in Minneapolis at the O’Shaughnessy Distilling Co. Following a tour and tasting at the facility, Nicole Melwood, Director, and Vincent Kravec,...
In the context of rising resource security concerns amid the energy transition, legislators and regulators across the developed West are making a concerted effort to re-orient resource supply chains....
CF Private Equity’s Real Assets and Sustainability team recently hosted a fireside chat webinar with the Noveon Magnetics CEO, Scott Dunn. Preceding this conversation was a brief overview of CF...
The recent rise of the U.S. 10-year interest rate will likely prove difficult for most real estate assets given that the historic inversion in the yield curve has provided some refuge from the sharp...
In the 1st half of 2023, global secondary market volume was down 25 percent year-over-year (“YoY”), decreasing from $57 billion to $43 billion1. This was partially driven by the 24 percent YoY...
A year ago, the dollar was approaching multi-decade highs as global currencies coped with the most aggressive FOMC hiking cycle of the last forty years.
Market sentiment on bonds continues to trend lower, leaving the overall open interest in short-dated U.S. Treasury futures net short at an unprecedented level. There is the potential that these short...
The end of fiscal year 2023, and mid-point of the calendar year, marks the end of the pandemic years. At this point, many have returned to the workplace, at least part time, in-person meetings have...
The long-awaited decline in earnings growth appears to be upon us nearly halfway through 2023. Expectations for S&P 500 year-end earnings per share (EPS) growth range from flat to a tepid 1 percent.
Over the last year, there has been relentless reporting that the next shoe to drop for the economy and banking system is commercial real estate. The drumbeat runs counter to what we are hearing from...
Other than the impending recession, one of 2023’s most anticipated economic changes has been a labor market slowdown, with both economists and investors expecting a deceleration in economic activity...
Much to the surprise of market participants, global stocks have risen at an impressive pace year to date despite significant macroeconomic headwinds and regional bank troubles. In what can be deemed...
In today’s environment, commentary can seemingly become stale in periods as short as hours, let alone days. Just last month, we wrote how despite tightening lending conditions from banks, other...
The continued growth of private equity may lead to a bright future for secondaries as: ~$12.7 trillion of capital has been raised in the last 15 years in private equity, and Over 43,500 funds have...
As investors grapple with adjusting to 450 basis points of rate hikes (and likely more in sight), the debate on just how quickly monetary policy will transmit through the real economy has returned to...
Strong Fourth Quarter for Global Markets Following three quarters of bleak performance, global markets staged a rally to close what was a tumultuous 2022.
In 2021, the word was transitory. This described the expectations of Fed officials and many other prognosticators that elevated inflation would quickly return to the pre-COVID level of at or around 2...
In this chart of the month, it is commonly cited that monetary policy tightening has a lagged impact on economic activity. However, as the Federal Reserve drives the cost of capital higher, the...
The Consumer Price Index continues to surprise central bankers, commentators, and market participants alike. The latest headline reading of 8.2 percent, which reflects year-over-year price increases...
Unless you’ve been on a remote island with no Wi-Fi for the past nine months, you are well aware that it has been a rough start for capital markets. In fact, it has been a historically rough start to...
As U.S.-based investors, our clients tend to focus on issues closer to home when evaluating portfolio positioning. Most conversations are focused on the political climate, FOMC actions, localized...
It has been a difficult start for traditional portfolios of stocks and bonds in 2022 as the usual diversification benefits of these asset classes have failed to materialize. As high inflation remains...
As it burst onto the world scene in 2020, COVID-19 impacted asset classes and investment strategies across the board. While real estate was no exception, the industry managed a generally strong...
Stagflation fears are growing among investors as inflation recently accelerated at the same time 2022 GDP growth projections declined due to weaker consumer sentiment and increased risk aversion. A...
February ended in the same fashion as January, with elevated volatility across a wide spectrum of asset classes. Equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all swung...
Key Takeaways As widely anticipated, Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, February 24th, causing volatility to spike across the capital markets globally. By the closing bell in the U.S., however,...
2022 began with one of the worst market performance periods since 2009. While the tech-heavy NASDAQ index looks to finish January with a loss of around 10 percent, value equities will likely record...
As 2021 comes to an end, we enter 2022 with a good dose of uncertainty in the markets as the Fed begins to reduce and ultimately removes its accommodative policy which has been in place since the...
When we look for potential roadblocks that could spoil the breakneck pace of capital markets, the first risk that comes to mind is record-high valuations. While inflation risks have become more...
In its latest meeting on November 3rd, the Fed announced its decision to begin scaling back its historic bond purchasing program, marking the beginning of the end of the program that was aimed at...
Third Quarter 2021 Economic Outlook The end of the third quarter 2021 marks a turning point in the economic cycle. It’s the point where, despite the pandemic still being a part of daily lives,...
It is hard to imagine that in the short span of less than 18 months, energy markets went from a state of overabundance to one of severe shortages and skyrocketing prices. In April 2020, Brent oil...
The U.S. labor market continues to recover from one of the worst declines in employment since the 1930s. In the early days of the pandemic last April, demand for labor plummeted and the unemployment...
Housing demand appears to be slowing down in the first half of 2021, yet home prices have continued to climb at an accelerated pace. This month’s chart highlights the supply and demand factors...
Supply chain woes continue to wreak havoc for retailers who are grappling with a strong rebound in consumer spending. Average six-month spending on durable goods, spurred by over $5 trillion in...
As growth continues to rebound around the world and investors return to their pre-pandemic way of life, global market performance is beginning to reflect the divergent speed of normalization within...
The current debate about whether the spike we are seeing in inflation is “transitory” should be reframed as “reflation vs sustained inflation.” Just like many other economic data points (ISM,...
In his first 100 days as President of the United States, Joe Biden has introduced three domestic funding proposals, totaling close to $6.0 Trillion, reflecting a desire to enhance the role of the...
The key driver of the economy, and of public sentiment, has been the aggressive distribution and acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccines. A litany of measures reflects the improved outlook for the U.S....
The potential for rising inflation is becoming a top concern for many investors and consumers. Many believe that inflation is already here as evidenced by price increases in commodities, homes,...
"The secondary market has become a mainstay for investors, both as 1) more investors move into the secondary market and, 2) as a way to manage investors' existing private portfolios. Both sides of...
The trend of improving performance of sectors most sensitive to the strengthening economy remained on track in February 2021. For the most part of 2020, the traditional S&P 500 market-cap-weighted...
The venture growth and late stage venture capital (“VC”) market has matured over the last 10 years, and direct investing has emerged as an attractive strategy for Limited Partners (“LPs”) to...
In the middle of January, the Biden administration announced the details on a new $1.9 trillion stimulus package, including enhanced unemployment benefits, an increase in the minimum wage, and...
Income-hungry investors continued to push yields on speculative grade bonds to new lows despite the challenging business conditions this year. The yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate High Yield...
The month of November saw a sharp rotation into value equities at the expense of technology and communication services companies, causing investors to wonder whether the long-run dominance of growth...
It may come as a surprise to many that average disposable personal incomes have increased by 6.6 percent from February prior to the pandemic through August. This is down from a high of 9.8 percent in...
Few people would have predicted that U.S. equity markets would be higher today than at the start of 2020 if told that a virus would infect over 7.0 million people in the U.S., cause over 200,000...
Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole during the last week of August confirmed the Fed’s dovish policy stance, giving investors ample support in terms of low rates and a flexible inflation...
As we enter the new fiscal year, and Commonfund’s 50th year of operations, we leave behind what will likely be remembered as one of the most challenging and memorable fiscal years for the...
When investors open their second quarter investment reports, many will be shocked by the magnitude of stock market gains in the second quarter. Their surprise could be voiced by a rhetorical question...
We continue to monitor the level of social distancing as an indicator for business activity and improvement in consumer sentiment. Personal spending experienced the largest month-over-month drop on...
When will this crisis end? Following are three key issues fiduciaries should keep in mind concerning COVID-19 and this pandemic recession and recovery. The path and trajectory of COVID-19 This is...
The Federal Reserve is determined to support the economy and the normal functioning of capital markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 29th, the total asset size of the Fed’s balance sheet...
Commonfund CEO and CIO, Mark Anson, hosted Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book. Mr. Miller shared his proprietary research and insights in this exclusive session for Commonfund Forum registrants....
Commonfund convenes an expert panel to take on the short- and intermediate-term threats that higher education confronts in the face of a national emergency the likes of which have not been seen for...
It has been well documented that trying to avoid market downturns by selling out of stocks and moving to cash can be damaging to long-term portfolio values. And while there are strong behavioral...
There is no question that we are in unprecedented times and will likely remain so for longer than we anticipated even a few weeks ago. The speed at which a new reality has been imposed on all of us...
Oil prices declined over 21 percent on March 9, 2020, the largest single-day decline since January 1991 during the Gulf War[1]. There was optimism prior to the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum...
After a strong calendar year 2019, the S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on February 19, up nearly 5 percent since the year began. Now, a week later, the global equity markets have fallen...
World markets appeared to be returning to their upward trend in the beginning of February after a volatile start of the year. While concerns about global growth caused by the coronavirus outbreak are...
For the third year in a row, Commonfund Capital conducted a year-end annual survey of institutional investors to gauge their sentiment about private market investments. Survey responses totaled 267...
As we enter the 12th year of economic expansion since the Great Financial Crisis, investors continue to wonder whether 2020 will be the year when equity markets finally experience a correction....
Investment strategy influenced by altruistic intentions – broadly, impact investing – has long held sway in a small number of portfolios. Historically, impact investing has failed to gain significant...
Summary Positive signs on trade drove recent new highs in the U.S. equity markets The Fed continues to be accommodative and employment is strong Growth is slowing but is supported by the consumer,...
The July Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting signaled the end of central bank rate normalization with the first rate cut in more than a decade. The last time the FOMC cut rates was in...
How to think about tariffs, deficits, valuations, leverage, growth and other issues What signals should institutions be mindful of as they make portfolio decisions in the current environment? A panel...
Mark Anson, Commonfund Chief Executive Officer and CIO opens Forum 2019 with welcome remarks and a review of the global economy. Download the slides in this presentation.
The turbulent start to the New Year has led governing boards, investment committees and staff to question what’s next for the markets and what they should do about it. Below are the top five concerns...
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The Secondary Market is Vaulting Over Prior Records