Deficit Spending Remains a Constant Despite a Change in Leadership
A few years ago, Commonfund published a commentary on the budget battles in Washington. The world was navigating a pandemic. Joe Biden had just been elected and needed to offset the economic impact...
Fiscal Policy Impacts on the Economy: Maybe too early to tell….
We are now more than 100 days into the Trump administration and six weeks past the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. In that time the S&P 500 has reached it’s all time high, sold off more than...
Policy Uncertainty Impacts All Assets (Not Just Equities!)
Since the February peak in the S&P 500, reams of newsprint have been dedicated to the volatility in the equity markets and to a lesser extent the U.S. Treasury markets – but what about the U.S....
Is Your Portfolio Positioned for Lower Rates?
Until recently, investors were no doubt pleased with the continued strong equity performance in 2024 that resulted in new highs in the major domestic indices and strong returns globally.
The Fed and Markets Expectations Start to Align
It took six months, but the FOMC and the short-term rates markets are finally in alignment with respect to the level of the Fed Funds rate as we approach the second half of 2024. Since the beginning...
Yesterday's Sector Laggards are Today's Leaders
Much to the surprise of market participants, global stocks have risen at an impressive pace year to date despite significant macroeconomic headwinds and regional bank troubles. In what can be deemed...
The Trouble with Europe
As U.S.-based investors, our clients tend to focus on issues closer to home when evaluating portfolio positioning. Most conversations are focused on the political climate, FOMC actions, localized...
Commonfund Perspective on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Key Takeaways As widely anticipated, Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, February 24th, causing volatility to spike across the capital markets globally. By the closing bell in the U.S., however,...
Exiting the Recovery Phase
Third Quarter 2021 Economic Outlook The end of the third quarter 2021 marks a turning point in the economic cycle. It’s the point where, despite the pandemic still being a part of daily lives,...
The Economy and Markets March On
Summary Positive signs on trade drove recent new highs in the U.S. equity markets The Fed continues to be accommodative and employment is strong Growth is slowing but is supported by the consumer,...
Recession – Maybe This Time is Different
The July Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting signaled the end of central bank rate normalization with the first rate cut in more than a decade. The last time the FOMC cut rates was in...
Where Did Our Operating Income Go?
Treasury managers face a new challenge to an old problem. Their institutions historically have relied on operating investment income to provide a necessary influx to operating budgets. Prior to 2008,...
Unhedged Commentary: The $3 Trillion Question
Reprinted from Institutional Investor’s Alpha Spring 2016 issue The growth of the hedge fund industry over the past decade has been tremendous, with more and more institutional and retail investors...
Tariff Worries Are Likely Here to Stay