Bad News is “Good” for Markets to Close 2023
As we inch closer to 2024, domestic markets have been largely driven by shifts in sentiment surrounding the macroeconomic environment, leading many to question the relationship between “bad news” and...
Yield Curve Dynamics in Focus to Close 2023
After a relatively tame summer, significant cross-asset volatility has returned with both the MOVE and VIX indices increasing by 37 and 48 percent respectively, after approaching the lows for 2023 in...
Global Currency Returns Diverge
A year ago, the dollar was approaching multi-decade highs as global currencies coped with the most aggressive FOMC hiking cycle of the last forty years.
Midyear Rally or Multiple Expansion?
The long-awaited decline in earnings growth appears to be upon us nearly halfway through 2023. Expectations for S&P 500 year-end earnings per share (EPS) growth range from flat to a tepid 1 percent.
Unemployment Appears Poised to Increase
Other than the impending recession, one of 2023’s most anticipated economic changes has been a labor market slowdown, with both economists and investors expecting a deceleration in economic activity...
Bond Market Expectations Take a Wild Ride
In today’s environment, commentary can seemingly become stale in periods as short as hours, let alone days. Just last month, we wrote how despite tightening lending conditions from banks, other...
Rate Hikes are Impacting Bank Lending Behavior
As investors grapple with adjusting to 450 basis points of rate hikes (and likely more in sight), the debate on just how quickly monetary policy will transmit through the real economy has returned to...
Markets Rally to Close 2022, but Sentiment Remains Dismal
Strong Fourth Quarter for Global Markets Following three quarters of bleak performance, global markets staged a rally to close what was a tumultuous 2022.
Supply Chains Take a Wild Ride
In 2021, the word was transitory. This described the expectations of Fed officials and many other prognosticators that elevated inflation would quickly return to the pre-COVID level of at or around 2...
Chart of the Month | The Shape of Inflation
The Consumer Price Index continues to surprise central bankers, commentators, and market participants alike. The latest headline reading of 8.2 percent, which reflects year-over-year price increases...
China Continues to Drag Emerging Markets into 2024