In the current geopolitical environment, we would have historically expected much more volatility in the energy complex. Oddly, that has not been the case over the last 6 months. In fact, crude oil...
2 + 2 = ? In the world of economics—a lot of variables may mess with the answer. Two sessions early in the agenda at Commonfund Forum 2024 brought into focus the range of scenarios in play for...
2023 marked the third year of drawdowns for the Chinese equity markets, reflecting a country still trying to emerge from the pandemic period. A combination of factors continued to hamper the once...
The long and winding road This was a year to catch our breath. After the S&P 500 Index fell 18.1 percent in 2022, and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index fell 13.0 percent, we all needed a break....
As we inch closer to 2024, domestic markets have been largely driven by shifts in sentiment surrounding the macroeconomic environment, leading many to question the relationship between “bad news” and...
For more than 50 years, Commonfund has been working with boards and investment committees to design and implement investment structures that support and maintain intergenerational equity - the...
After a relatively tame summer, significant cross-asset volatility has returned with both the MOVE and VIX indices increasing by 37 and 48 percent respectively, after approaching the lows for 2023 in...
On September 27th, Commonfund OCIO hosted an event in Minneapolis at the O’Shaughnessy Distilling Co. Following a tour and tasting at the facility, Nicole Melwood, Director, and Vincent Kravec,...
The recent rise of the U.S. 10-year interest rate will likely prove difficult for most real estate assets given that the historic inversion in the yield curve has provided some refuge from the sharp...
A year ago, the dollar was approaching multi-decade highs as global currencies coped with the most aggressive FOMC hiking cycle of the last forty years.
Market sentiment on bonds continues to trend lower, leaving the overall open interest in short-dated U.S. Treasury futures net short at an unprecedented level. There is the potential that these short...
The end of fiscal year 2023, and mid-point of the calendar year, marks the end of the pandemic years. At this point, many have returned to the workplace, at least part time, in-person meetings have...
The long-awaited decline in earnings growth appears to be upon us nearly halfway through 2023. Expectations for S&P 500 year-end earnings per share (EPS) growth range from flat to a tepid 1 percent.
Over the last year, there has been relentless reporting that the next shoe to drop for the economy and banking system is commercial real estate. The drumbeat runs counter to what we are hearing from...
Other than the impending recession, one of 2023’s most anticipated economic changes has been a labor market slowdown, with both economists and investors expecting a deceleration in economic activity...
Much to the surprise of market participants, global stocks have risen at an impressive pace year to date despite significant macroeconomic headwinds and regional bank troubles. In what can be deemed...
In today’s environment, commentary can seemingly become stale in periods as short as hours, let alone days. Just last month, we wrote how despite tightening lending conditions from banks, other...
As investors grapple with adjusting to 450 basis points of rate hikes (and likely more in sight), the debate on just how quickly monetary policy will transmit through the real economy has returned to...
Strong Fourth Quarter for Global Markets Following three quarters of bleak performance, global markets staged a rally to close what was a tumultuous 2022.
Shelter from the Storm Last year I wrote about the ongoing impacts of the pandemic on our personal and professional lives while supply chain woes, rising inflation and high stock market valuations...
In 2021, the word was transitory. This described the expectations of Fed officials and many other prognosticators that elevated inflation would quickly return to the pre-COVID level of at or around 2...
In this chart of the month, it is commonly cited that monetary policy tightening has a lagged impact on economic activity. However, as the Federal Reserve drives the cost of capital higher, the...
The Consumer Price Index continues to surprise central bankers, commentators, and market participants alike. The latest headline reading of 8.2 percent, which reflects year-over-year price increases...
Unless you’ve been on a remote island with no Wi-Fi for the past nine months, you are well aware that it has been a rough start for capital markets. In fact, it has been a historically rough start to...
As U.S.-based investors, our clients tend to focus on issues closer to home when evaluating portfolio positioning. Most conversations are focused on the political climate, FOMC actions, localized...
It has been a difficult start for traditional portfolios of stocks and bonds in 2022 as the usual diversification benefits of these asset classes have failed to materialize. As high inflation remains...
As it burst onto the world scene in 2020, COVID-19 impacted asset classes and investment strategies across the board. While real estate was no exception, the industry managed a generally strong...
Stagflation fears are growing among investors as inflation recently accelerated at the same time 2022 GDP growth projections declined due to weaker consumer sentiment and increased risk aversion. A...
February ended in the same fashion as January, with elevated volatility across a wide spectrum of asset classes. Equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all swung...
Key Takeaways As widely anticipated, Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, February 24th, causing volatility to spike across the capital markets globally. By the closing bell in the U.S., however,...
2022 began with one of the worst market performance periods since 2009. While the tech-heavy NASDAQ index looks to finish January with a loss of around 10 percent, value equities will likely record...
As 2021 comes to an end, we enter 2022 with a good dose of uncertainty in the markets as the Fed begins to reduce and ultimately removes its accommodative policy which has been in place since the...
When we look for potential roadblocks that could spoil the breakneck pace of capital markets, the first risk that comes to mind is record-high valuations. While inflation risks have become more...
In its latest meeting on November 3rd, the Fed announced its decision to begin scaling back its historic bond purchasing program, marking the beginning of the end of the program that was aimed at...
Third Quarter 2021 Economic Outlook The end of the third quarter 2021 marks a turning point in the economic cycle. It’s the point where, despite the pandemic still being a part of daily lives,...
It is hard to imagine that in the short span of less than 18 months, energy markets went from a state of overabundance to one of severe shortages and skyrocketing prices. In April 2020, Brent oil...
The U.S. labor market continues to recover from one of the worst declines in employment since the 1930s. In the early days of the pandemic last April, demand for labor plummeted and the unemployment...
Housing demand appears to be slowing down in the first half of 2021, yet home prices have continued to climb at an accelerated pace. This month’s chart highlights the supply and demand factors...
Supply chain woes continue to wreak havoc for retailers who are grappling with a strong rebound in consumer spending. Average six-month spending on durable goods, spurred by over $5 trillion in...
The new fiscal year beginning July 1st will mark Commonfund’s fifty-year anniversary – and what a memorable year it has been. As we write this letter, we are hopeful that the new year will bring...
As growth continues to rebound around the world and investors return to their pre-pandemic way of life, global market performance is beginning to reflect the divergent speed of normalization within...
The current debate about whether the spike we are seeing in inflation is “transitory” should be reframed as “reflation vs sustained inflation.” Just like many other economic data points (ISM,...
In his first 100 days as President of the United States, Joe Biden has introduced three domestic funding proposals, totaling close to $6.0 Trillion, reflecting a desire to enhance the role of the...
The key driver of the economy, and of public sentiment, has been the aggressive distribution and acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccines. A litany of measures reflects the improved outlook for the U.S....
The potential for rising inflation is becoming a top concern for many investors and consumers. Many believe that inflation is already here as evidenced by price increases in commodities, homes,...
The trend of improving performance of sectors most sensitive to the strengthening economy remained on track in February 2021. For the most part of 2020, the traditional S&P 500 market-cap-weighted...
In the middle of January, the Biden administration announced the details on a new $1.9 trillion stimulus package, including enhanced unemployment benefits, an increase in the minimum wage, and...
Income-hungry investors continued to push yields on speculative grade bonds to new lows despite the challenging business conditions this year. The yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate High Yield...
The month of November saw a sharp rotation into value equities at the expense of technology and communication services companies, causing investors to wonder whether the long-run dominance of growth...
It may come as a surprise to many that average disposable personal incomes have increased by 6.6 percent from February prior to the pandemic through August. This is down from a high of 9.8 percent in...
Few people would have predicted that U.S. equity markets would be higher today than at the start of 2020 if told that a virus would infect over 7.0 million people in the U.S., cause over 200,000...
Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole during the last week of August confirmed the Fed’s dovish policy stance, giving investors ample support in terms of low rates and a flexible inflation...
When investors open their second quarter investment reports, many will be shocked by the magnitude of stock market gains in the second quarter. Their surprise could be voiced by a rhetorical question...
We continue to monitor the level of social distancing as an indicator for business activity and improvement in consumer sentiment. Personal spending experienced the largest month-over-month drop on...
When will this crisis end? Following are three key issues fiduciaries should keep in mind concerning COVID-19 and this pandemic recession and recovery. The path and trajectory of COVID-19 This is...
The Federal Reserve is determined to support the economy and the normal functioning of capital markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 29th, the total asset size of the Fed’s balance sheet...
It has been well documented that trying to avoid market downturns by selling out of stocks and moving to cash can be damaging to long-term portfolio values. And while there are strong behavioral...
There is no question that we are in unprecedented times and will likely remain so for longer than we anticipated even a few weeks ago. The speed at which a new reality has been imposed on all of us...
Oil prices declined over 21 percent on March 9, 2020, the largest single-day decline since January 1991 during the Gulf War[1]. There was optimism prior to the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum...
After a strong calendar year 2019, the S&P 500 reached its most recent all-time high on February 19, up nearly 5 percent since the year began. Now, a week later, the global equity markets have fallen...
World markets appeared to be returning to their upward trend in the beginning of February after a volatile start of the year. While concerns about global growth caused by the coronavirus outbreak are...
As we enter the 12th year of economic expansion since the Great Financial Crisis, investors continue to wonder whether 2020 will be the year when equity markets finally experience a correction....
Investment strategy influenced by altruistic intentions – broadly, impact investing – has long held sway in a small number of portfolios. Historically, impact investing has failed to gain significant...
Summary Positive signs on trade drove recent new highs in the U.S. equity markets The Fed continues to be accommodative and employment is strong Growth is slowing but is supported by the consumer,...
The July Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting signaled the end of central bank rate normalization with the first rate cut in more than a decade. The last time the FOMC cut rates was in...
What's Driving Surprisingly Low Volatility in Energy Markets?
The Economic Equation: Solving for the Unknowns
China Continues to Drag Emerging Markets into 2024
Year-End Update and 2024 Investment Outlook
Bad News is “Good” for Markets to Close 2023
City of the Big Shoulders: Key Takeaways from our Chicago CIO/CFO Roundtable
Yield Curve Dynamics in Focus to Close 2023
Private Credit Today
Real Estate and Negative Leverage – The long and the short of it...
Lagarde Offers Little Comfort Amidst All Time High ECB Rates
Global Currency Returns Diverge
Markets Signal Higher for Longer Interest Rates
Fiscal Year-End and Mid-Year 2023 Market and Investment Review
Midyear Rally or Multiple Expansion?
Is Commercial Real Estate the Next Shoe to Drop?
Unemployment Appears Poised to Increase
Yesterday's Sector Laggards are Today's Leaders
Bond Market Expectations Take a Wild Ride
Rate Hikes are Impacting Bank Lending Behavior
Markets Rally to Close 2022, but Sentiment Remains Dismal
Year-End Update and 2023 Investment Outlook
Supply Chains Take a Wild Ride
Real Estate Takes a Hit from the Fed
Chart of the Month | The Shape of Inflation
The Endowment Model Proves Its Worth (Again)
The Trouble with Europe
The “Divorcification” of Stocks and Bonds
Real Estate Today … and the Trends Likely To Shape Tomorrow
Are Stagflation Fears Justified?
Is this Time Different? Risk Assets and Real Rate Moves
Commonfund Perspective on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Tech Stocks Lead the Market Decline in Early 2022
Consumer Savings and Disposable Income Under Pressure
Sky High Valuations Could Spell Weaker Forward Returns
Chart of the Month | Fed Remains Patient on Rate Hikes Despite Market Expectations For A More Aggressive Move
Exiting the Recovery Phase
Chart of the Month | Are We on the Verge of a Global Energy Crisis?
Chart of the Month | The Confusing State of the Labor Market
Chart of the Month | Home Prices Are Up 32 Percent In Five Years – And Still Climbing
Chart of the Month | Supply Chain Woes as the Pandemic Recedes in the U.S.
Fiscal Year-End and Mid-Year 2021 Market and Investment Review
Chart of the Month | Emerging Markets Trail the Pack Despite Rising Demand and Commodities Prices
Digging Deeper into Inflation Fears
Chart of the Month | U.S. Budget Deficit Hits Record Highs
A New Chapter for the Economy
Chart of the Month | The Surprising Relationship Between Money Supply and Inflation
Chart of the Month | The Stock Market Rally May Finally Be Broadening Beyond Tech Names
Chart of the Month | Are Bonds Still a Good Hedge for Equity Market Declines?
Chart of the Month | Beware of High Yield Bonds
Chart of the Month | Are Value Stocks Finally Going to Make a Run?
Chart of the Month | Recession Impacts on Employment and Wages
Chart of the Month | Low Rates Make Record Government Debt Manageable – For Now
Chart of the Month | Inflation Expectations Surge, Driving Real Interest Rates Down
Chart of the Month | Markets are Running Ahead of Economic Reality
Chart of the Month | Measuring Social Distancing with Mobility Trends
When Will this Crisis End? 3 Keys to Recovery
Chart of the Month | The Fed Rides to the Rescue
Chart of the Month | The Dangers of Timing a Bear Market
Coronavirus: Five Key Questions for Nonprofit Institutions
Chart of the Month | A Price War Erupts in the Oil Market
Market Commentary: Impact of the Coronavirus on Markets and Portfolios
Chart of the Month | Central Banks Increasingly Accommodative
Chart of the Month | Election Year Market Trends
Impact Investing Trends - A Market Matures
The Economy and Markets March On
Recession – Maybe This Time is Different